How long will La Niña last in Australia?
So, we know that we're likely in for a wet and soggy Christmas break, but just how long it could last is still up in the air.
The BoM says that from November 2021 to January 2022 we can anticipate rainfall above the median for most of the country’s eastern states and in parts of eastern WA. Over summer, parts of SA are 3-4 times more likely to experience rain in the top 20% of historical downpours.
Experts are also warning that along with increased rainfall, we can also expect lower-than-average daytime temperatures as well (particularly in NSW and South Queensland). Basically, we can all expect some wetter, colder days from now until the end of January.
The good new is, that the bureau forecasts that this year's La Niña event will be much weaker than the 2010-2012 cycle, and perhaps weaker than this past year. So, there's still a possibility that we could squeeze a few good days of sun in.
Speaking to The Guardian, senior research associate at UNSW’s Climate Change Research Centre, Dr Agus Santoso, predicted that the impending La Niña event is "probably not as strong" as the one we experienced between 2011-2012. Before you start looking out your best bikinis though, he does expect “wetter-than-normal conditions," so we're not entirely off the hook.
So, will this be our best summer ever? Probably not. It's looking like it won't be the worst, however, so we're willing to take the silver linings wherever we can. On the upside, increased rainfall is brilliant news for our farmers in rural areas, and it does decrease the likelihood of severe bushfires which are known to spike during summer.
Our plan is to hold tight for the next few months and ride the wave until the end of January. Any sunny days will be a true blessing, and we'll no doubt be seeing you (and everyone else in Australia) at the beach when they happen.
